Iconoclast Entertainment

I love these movies!

2009-07-04T14:27:00.009-04:00

I just saw two of the best movies that I will see all year. They are as different as can be; one is sentimental and quirky, the other lean and merciless.

Michael Mann's Public Enemies is the easily his best film since 1999's The Insider, and probably my favortie Micheal Mann film with the one possible exception being his debut film, Theif. Johnny Depp teams with Michael Mann to make a film that Dillinger would have loved: efficient, no bullshit, but stylish as hell. Mann and cinematographer Dante Spinotti have outdone themselves in creating a look to this film that is beautiful, but feels lived in like few period pieces ever do. The common themes that run through this film are vintage Mann: he lionizes the person who follows his own moral compass, right or wrong and despises those who force others to act against their morals and the individuals who allow their morals to be compromised. There is equal hatred in this film for Frank Nitti as their is for J. Edgar Hoover (Billy Crudup in a brilliant cameo). And while Depp doesn't have too many "Oscar Reel" moments, his performance is a triumph. Depp understands that Dillinger spent most of his life playing a part, but we can never quite tell wether it is more of a mercenary move in order to hide among the public, or if he's doing it for the sheer unbridled fun of it. I didn't realize how much I loved this performance until I saw one of the film's final scenes that is full of tension and ends with a comment on a baseball game. I refuse to say more.

Away We Go is Sam Mendes fifth film and marks a major departure from his other work. It is the first that does not have cinematographers Conrad Hall (RIP) or Roger Deakins atttatched and also eschews Mendes typical Thomas Newman score for a indie folk heavy soundtrack. Whereas Revolutionary Road seemed a bit stale, this film is warm and fresh and bolstered by a lovely screenplay courtesy of real life literary supercouple David Eggers and Vendela Vida. The film aims for a very specific and complicated emotional tone and nails it. The cast is great, but you will leave the theatre talking about Maya Rudolph, whose performance would carry this film if it so needed. Her active listening, her total commitment to character will blow you away if you are looking. Of the slew of bit parts that wander in and out of the film, Allison Janney is the funniest, and Chris Messina the most touching. Rudolph and Krasinski together, however, might have accomplished the greatest feat in creating a couple that is believable despite the films intense scrutiny. There is never a moment of falsehood between them, and their relationship is one that you cannot help but root for.

I will discuss the mixed critical reaction to these films at a later time.

Back with a Vengeance!

2009-07-03T17:22:00.001-04:00

Look for a new article on the three mainstream contenders currently in release

Up
Public Enemies
Away We Go

Salman Rushdie is smarter than me

2009-03-04T17:26:00.002-05:00

Why do I even bother writing about anything when Salman Rushdie does it so much better.

"It used to be the case that western movies about India were about blonde women arriving there to find, almost at once, a maharajah to fall in love with, the supply of such maharajahs being apparently endless and specially provided for English or American blondes; or they were about European women accusing non-maharajah Indians of rape, perhaps because they were so indignant at having being approached by a non-maharajah; or they were about dashing white men galloping about the colonies firing pistols and unsheathing sabres, to varying effect. Now that sort of exoticism has lost its appeal; people want, instead, enough grit and violence to convince themselves that what they are seeing is authentic; but it's still tourism. If the earlier films were raj tourism, maharajah-tourism, then we, today, have slum tourism instead."
- Salman Rushdie

Apocalypse sign #346

2009-03-02T08:50:00.002-05:00

It looks like Madea Goes to Jail just topped the Jonas Brothers 3D Experience for the Box Office's top spot...

I'm speechless. Am I really just a grumpy old intolerant person for thinking Tyler Perry and the Jonas Brothers are all talentless hacks that don't deserve to be in a film, let alone kings of the B.O.?

Mr. Hornby would, I assume, call me out for being a snob and a member of the "liberal intelligentsia" because I am truly baffled. Summer can't come quickly enough.

My response to Nick Hornby's defense of Slumdog

2009-02-28T09:36:00.003-05:00

I don't disagree with what Nick Hornby says in defense of Slumdog, but rather what he implies. Just as he ripped apart another reviewer's implications and supposed motives, so shall I.

Those speaking against the film are not trying to prevent the film from being loved, nor are they insulting the filmmakers nor the actors. They're simply arguing that this film does not represent the best filmmaking of this year. My arguments against both Slumdog and Juno are more targeted toward their marketing. Juno was the lovable little "indie" movie with an "indie" soundtrack, and all sorts of other "indie" things that weren't quite "indie" enough to insult anyone's precious Middle-American sensibilities. Juno the film was fine, but the way it was packaged coated it with such a thick "indie" lacquer that covered up what was, at its heart, a very conventional story.

Slumdog Millionaire was a well-filmed, well meaning film that greatly disappointed me with a lazy ending. But the marketing invites people to express their fleeting concern for people in other countries while enjoying a familiar feeling story. (Bambi+Oliver Twist+every gangster movie/romantic comedy cliche = Slumdog Millionaire) It's a nice film with easy sentiments. These easy sentiments are highly commercial and just because they aren't "a licence to print money!" doesn't mean they aren't CHEAP and HOLLOW.

We aren't saying Slumdog Millionaire is an exercise in utter studio cynicism like "Epic Movie", we are saying that the public's reason for loving the film has little to do with the actual quality of the film. I'm not a member of the exclusive "liberal intelligentsia" for thinking that, nor am I somehow a snob because I don't love everything the Academy members deign to award every year.

Just as "Slumdog Millionaire" pushed the film industry by showing that a film with an unknown foreign cast can be successful (you just have to hype it up as the best film of all time), discerning viewers can hold out until the truly independent films that were made for art's sake and not for profit's sake; films that ask difficult questions and don't supply easy answers. I'm glad that mildly unconventional films like Slumdog, Juno, Little Miss Sunshine, and Sideways have found their way to the Oscar podium, but I'm waiting for the day when we find room for Hunger, Ballast, Gomorrah, and Let the Right One In. How about a day when documentaries and animated films can be considered not part of some sub-class with no chance at the big prize regardless of their quality. Or a day in which coming from seemingly childish source material makes you somehow not serious or exigent enough.

It's the self-congratulations associated with honoring a mildly unconventional film like Slumdog that drives me crazy. Slumdog was this year's token film in a year of deeply conventional, boring picks. Rather than patting yourselves on the back for honoring a film filled with poor brown people, you should watch a couple of more movies and stop fast-tracking this year's latest biopics, weepies, and holocaust dramas to the Oscar podium.

It's not Slumdog's fault, nor Danny Boyle's, and considering this year's unbearably weak slate of nominees I didn't care that Slumdog took the Oscar home. I hate the process, and the fact that so many deserving artists are left out in the cold. And perhaps there is a tendency to direct one's anger toward the one smaller film that does get recognition. The real hatred is toward the reason such a film was accepted by the general population. Slumdog wasn't loved because of its expert handling of multiple flashbacks (see Sorry, Wrong Number to see what a mess that can become) or its lovely cinematography. It was awarded because it made the viewers feel better about themselves. And as A. R. Rahman accepted his awards for his frankly pedestrian score and song, I imagined the voters giving themselves a mental award for being so open minded. And that self-congratulatory groupthink is what made my stomach turn.

Trivia Time!

2009-02-25T07:20:00.002-05:00

With each passing Oscar year, new precedents are set and old trends are followed. Here's a challenging question that corresponds to 5 winners.

Best Pictre
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE... is the first best picture winner to be set exclusively in Asia since the 1980s when there were THREE such films. Name the films

Best Director
DANNY BOYLE.... is the first director winner from the UK for some time. Who was the last Best Director winner to hail from the UK?

Best Actor
SEAN PENN.... was the second straight prior winner to take home Best Actor. His closest competition was MICKEY ROURKE, who was previously not nominated (ditto perceived 3rd placer Frank Langella). Despite the perception that the oscars hand out consolation prizes to overdue actors, only TWO actors in the past fifteen years were prior nominees of an acting award, but had yet to win one. Name them.

Best Actress
KATE WINSLET... was considered supporting during the Golden Globes Ceremony, but ultimately won the Best Actress Oscar. This has happened before, but decades earlier. What actress, prior to Winslet, won the Best Actress Oscar despite being nominated for Supporting Actress for the Golden Globes

Best Original Screenplay
DUSTIN LANCE BLACK.... 's screenplay was considered original because it was not based on any biographical account or the famous documentary film on the subject. What script won an award for Original Screenplay despite being obviously based on famous and successful source material?

The Oscar Telecast: take the good with the bad

2009-02-23T18:10:00.003-05:00

Bill Condon took over this year's Oscar telecast and for the most part did a good job of it. Whereas Roger Ebert is a bit too enthusiastic about the night, Nikki Finke is far too bitter and negative. Here's my take on what worked and what didn't

THE GOOD

Hugh Jackman - Charming, funny, and versatile. He didn't wow me, but he proved an inviting presence and he fit this year's ceremony perfectly. Not everything he did was great, but the blame cannot lay with him. He gave it his all and put on a good show.

Steve Martin and Tina Fey - Probably the funniest presentation of any award I've ever seen. Classic lines and great comic chemistry. They should host next year.

Moving the Orchestra backstage - Made the show so much more intimate and sentimental. And really added to the acting awards change. Speaking of which...

The Presentation of the Acting Awards - I don't know if it's going to work every year, but I generally liked the appreciation expressed toward each nominee. It got a bit awkward when someone undeserving (Taraji P. Henson) had to sit through a muddled attempt to make their work seem important, but for the most part it was a nice touch. There was a downside which I will come to later.

The opening number (espescially the Frost/Nixon and The Reader bits) - The music was a bit uninspired, but Jackman and Hathaway's bit for Frost/Nixon was very funny ("Frank Langella was sitting right next to me") and the play on the fact that so few people have seen The Reader was very creatively done. The other bits were okay, but those two stood out.

The Awards Order - This was my favorite part, telling the story of how movies are made. Instead of the tried and true insincere encomiums offered to sound editors and art directors we see every year, they actually streamlined these awards into a very nice narrative that paid tribute to each category without being plodding. It lost its way halfway through, but it was a novel concept that paid off beautifully.

The Speeches - Condon et. al. had nothing to do with this, but all of the major speeches were very touching. Dustin Lance Black was the most memorable, but when Sean Penn can manage not to stick his foot in his mouth, it's a special night. The lone speech I genuinely didn't like was O'Connor's for Best Costume (seemed like an ungrateful prick). Anthony Dod Mantle came a close second with a rambling and awkwardly unfunny speech that was nonetheless harmless. When the worst speeches are for costume and cinematography, you're in good shape.

Some Great Random Moments - Man on Wire guy balancing an Oscar on his chin, Kate's dad whistling, "Domo Oregato Mr. Roboto", "Suck It Anthony Dod Mantle"

The Bad

The nominees/winners - It's hard to root against them, but I still hold they are not the best films of this year by any stretch of the imagination.

The Frat Pack - Apatow, Rogan, and Stiller did not have good nights. Stiller's Joaquin Phoenix impersonation began funny but went on for too long. The Apatow film might have been funny in a different context, but did not fit with the energy of that night.

Baz Luhrman's "Musicals are Back!" number - This is coming from a person that saw Moulin Rouge! 4 times in the theatre: Luhrman needs to scale it back a little...okay a lot. This is not a criticism of Beyonce or Jackman, but the number didn't work simply because it was too convoluted. The Medley jumped around quicker than Thelma Schoonmaker's editing (www.imdb.com - look it up) from song to song providing little to no cohesion. And the broad declaration "THE MUSICAL IS BACK!" was not very convincing given the paucity of recent successful musicals. I don't care how much money they made, Mamma Mia! and HSM3 are not the films you want to promote in order to sell the general public on the musical. Given the state of Broadway, I'd me more apt to declare that the musical is dead.

NO CLIPS??!! - This was the lone setback of the Inside the Actor's Studio style of giving the actor awards. I like hearing Whoopi Goldberg praise Amy Adams, but i'd rather the audience get to see her actual work so they are more likely to see her film. Even if I've seen the films, I love to see the clips as a last second reminder of that actor's fine work.

Best Original Song - Wretched category this year and performed very well. John Legend did a better job than I thought he would with Gabriel's song, but the staging for it was bizzarre and the performance did not do justice to any of the three songs. M.I.A. and Peter Gabriel's abscences were greatly felt (not to mention should be nominees Bruce Springsteen and Jenny Lewis).

The Overall Concept - Okay... look, I was entertained by this year's oscar telecast, but let's be honest. It's the Oscar equivalent of naming Sarah Palin as your running mate. Hear me out... This telecast is trying to bring back "Old Hollywood Glamour" and had tons of song and dance numbers, Hugh Jackman as host... Nikki Finke isn't too far off in calling this the gayest oscars ever. It was. I, a straight male, enjoyed them but they were a little too fabulous. The problem with that is that it isn't going to attract new viewers. Nominating a well made film that made a Billion Dollars might, as well as nominating a deserving kids film. What movie hooked me on the Oscar's? Beauty and the Beast. I was 10 and I've watched every Oscar telecast since. Babe might have drawn in some other younguns in '95. I'm sure ET couldn't have hurt in '82...

And while I like sincere and emotional ceremonies as much as the next guy, I'd like to bring back some of the funny. Chris Rock and Jon Stewart might not have stroked the right egos, but they sure as hell made me laugh. Jackman was good, but I don't want the academy to think they can just put some pretty boy up there to entertain them, I like a little bit of ribbing. Once is enough for Hugh, as lovely as he was.

My choices for next year's host

1. Martin and Fey
2. Ricky Gervais
3. A Stewart/Colbert/Carell team

Profiling Best Actress

2009-02-08T14:58:00.003-05:00

Here's the second in my continuing series. Just as we create profiles for killers and the like: so shall I create a profile for winners so that we may make more informed decisions come Oscar time. Next up is Best Actress. This race is usually pretty cut and dried with little drama attatched, and this year is not very different. If we're lucky the Globes and SAGs offer enough of a split that we can call it a race. This year, it looks like Winslet vs. Streep. A modern day Deborah Kerr (nominated and respected, but always losing the award) versus a modern day Bette Davis (won two Oscars so early that her exceptional work later in life has gone unrewarded). The rest of the field don't seem to have much of a shot, but let's take a look at the metrics to see if there's a dark horse we are sleeping on.

PROFILE OF A BEST ACTRESS WINNER

- Age ranges between 21 and 80, however it is extremely likely that the subject is in her 30s. This has proven true in 25 of the past 50 cases. It is equally unlikely that the subject is over 50, as this is only true in 6 of the last 50 cases. In fact, only one actress in the history of the Oscars has won a Best Actress statuette while in her 50s: Shirley Booth. Why is this significant? Meryl Streep, a major contender, is 59. Out of 81 prior winners, she would only be the second. Oh and Kate Winslet, the other major contender, is 33.

Analysis: Big edge to Kate and Angie, big blow to Meryl.

- Subject is more often than not a prior nominee, but not overwhelmingly. Since the '00 ceremony, it has been a yo-yo match whether the winner was prior nominee. Swank wasn't, Roberts was, Berry wasn't, Kidman was, Theron wasn't, Swank was, Witherspoon wasn't, Mirren was, Cotillard wasn't... and with prior nominees Streep and Winslet as the main contenders it looks like this bizzarre trend will continue. Streep's past wins do not hurt her much, if at all. Voters seem far likelier to give multiple wins to Best Actress candidates than Best Actor candidates. Only 8 actors have won multiple Best Actor awards and all of them have won only two. Katherine Hepburn has 4, and eleven other actresses have won 2 (Swank, Foster, Field, Fonda, (Glenda) Jackson, Taylor, Bergman, Leigh, De Havilland, Davis, and Rainer). Also take into account that the win happened 26 years ago and she has been nominated for best actress 9 times since that win. That said, most Best Actress winners have been nominated before but have not won by a 2 to 1 margin, so while Meryl's wins aren't a hindrance, Winslet still comes out on top in this stat.

Analysis: Slight edge to Meryl, Kate and Angie. Meryl's prior wins don't hurt, but Kate's lack of a win is better.

- Subject is more likely to be in a film nominated for Best Picture. A similar bizarre back and forth trend exists here as with prior nominees over the same period of time. Cotillard's film was not nominated, Mirrien's was, Witherspoon's wasn't, Swank's was etc. This could either continue with a Winslet win, or broken by a win for any other nominee.

Analysis: Numbers and trend support a Winslet victory.

- 69 of the total 81 winners have played fictional characters. However, 5 of the last 6 have been based on real people. So we have a strong trend going against an incredibly powerful overall total. With only Angelina Jolie playing a true character, look for the trend to fall.

Analysis: Trend says Jolie wins, Overall numbers say she has no chance. Go with the overall numbers.

-10 of the past 12 Best actress winners have come from screenplays not adapted from other sources. The overall numbers are not as emphatic, but do endorse the original screenplay bias. With Winslet and Streep as the frontrunners in adapted material, an upset could be in the works.

Analysis: Upset seems more likely given this powerful trend

- only 5 of the past 50 winners play characters who die during the course of the film. This stat only affects one actress: the favorite Ms. Winslet. However, 4 of those cases have come in the past 9 years... still, this is not good news for Kate fans.

Analysis: Overall numbers savage Kate's chances, trend slightly mitigates the damage.

-Glenda Jackson was the Best Actress winner for a film in which she is nude. Since then, 10 others have also won for films in which they appear nude (Jane Fonda twice). That's only 11 of 28 (46%) during this period which is not a heartening statistic. It only gets worse from there. since those 11 are the only 11, that gives it a paltry overall number (14%) and the current trend runs against nudity as the last 4 winners won for films in which they were not nude. Bad news for the very naked Ms. Winslet.

Analysis: Winslet's nudity hurts her chances.

- Over the 14 year existence of the SAG Best Female Actor in a Leading Role, Either the Globes or the SAG award has correctly predicted the winner. This year SAG chose Streep while the Globes chose Winslet and Hawkins. Hawkins was not nominated, so an upset win would be completely unprecedented and is unlikely. Over that span, the Globes and SAGs have gone what I call "head to head" a total of five times. By this I mean the SAG awards chose as their winner a person who lost their Golden Globe category. (They do not include examples like last year where the SAG merely endorsed the wrong Golden Globe winner) The SAG has won 3 of these match ups to the Globes 2, thus giving it a slight edge.

And then there's the troublesome fact that Ms. Winslet has switched categories. The SAG has had a winner switch categories and still win the Oscar (Benicio Del Toro switched from lead to supporting) and the Globes have as well (Maggie Smith won Lead in a Musical Comedy Globe, but won supporting actress Oscar). However Winslet is switching the opposite way; from supporting to lead. This has happened only once: Patricia Neal for Hud in 1963. She was nominated for supporting actress at the Globes, but ended up winning a Best Actress Oscar. So a Winslet win, while irregular, would not be unprecedented.

Analysis: An upset looks almost impossible, Winslet or Streep will win. The SAG preference and the fact that Winslet is switching categories both point toward a Streep victory.

Overall Analysis: The numbers don't point in either direction emphatically, Winslet is the right age, a prior nominee, and in a Best Picture film. However there are certain other factors that seem to hinder her progress... Streep is a presence here, and cannot be ignored. A Streep upset would not surprise me, but make no mistake this is Winslet's to lose. Her double win on Globe night, her continued success for this performance, the highly motivated campaign behind her, and the sentiment that this is "her year" would need a mountain of stats to overcome. Since the stats point in both directions, go with Winslet.

My take on their chances:
Winslet 66%
Streep 33%
Hathaway .5%
Leo .5%
Jolie - OUT OF CONTENTION

The Oscar Formula: Profiling the Best Actors

2009-02-07T00:13:00.002-05:00

Just as Will Graham, Clarice Starling, and... you know, real investigators do with serial killers, so shall I do with the winners of the Best Actor award. These are statistics, and should not be confused with actual analysis, but should inform analysis.

Winning a strong precursor like a Golden Globe or SAG is the strongest factor here, so we know this race is probably between Mickey Rourke and Sean Penn with Frank Langella as a possible upset pick. That's the state of the race as common sense dictates, now lets see what the numbers say

PROFILE OF A BEST ACTOR WINNER

- Age can range from 29 to 76, but most often a man in his mid-forties. (edge to Penn and Pitt)
- Subject is most likely a previous nominee, however this factor has trended in the opposite direction in recent years. If subject is a previous nominee he most likely has not won an Oscar for acting (Bad news for Penn, good news for Pitt)
- Subject has most likely been nominated for his work in a film that has been nominated for Best Picture (edge to Penn, as well as Pitt and Langella)
- Contrary to popular belief, subject is most likely NOT playing a real or historical figure, though a recent trend drifts the other way (Good news for Rourke, Jenkins, and Pitt)
- A recent trend suggests that an actor in a film whose screenplay is considered "adapted" has an advantage (favors Langella and Pitt)
- The character played by the Subject most likely does not die during the course of the film (Edge to Langella, Jenkins, and, depending on your interpretation, Rourke)
- If the Golden Globes and SAG awards for Best Actor do not match, then the slight edge goes to the winner of the SAG award. The Golden Globes won the last SAG/GG showdown in 2004, but SAG won the other two. It has also happened that both the SAG and Globes have picked different contenders, but BOTH were wrong.

The numbers have Pitt as a strong contender, but we know better than that. They really point towards Sean Penn... but I have to say that I'm still casting my lot with Mickey Rourke. I think he has the "It" factor, that thing that transcends stats... Either way, Best Actress is next.

Oscar Nominations: Epic Fail

2009-01-24T22:13:00.008-05:00

S0, this year's nominations have left several people disturbed. Where's the support for The Dark Knight? Why wasn't critical darling Wall-E rewarded with a nod? But this didn't just start with the nominations. Several people have indicated that this year was a very weak year for the overall quality of the nominees. I tend to agree, but it's even worse than that. In an already weak year, I believe the Academy has passed over several deserving films to reward a lineup of usual suspects: Period Romances and Biopics. Of course you have to have one feel-good indie type to add just enough spice to make the smell of studio control and cronyism dissapate. This is the first year that I can remember when I can't think of a single film I'm rooting for.

Here's how I rate this year's films, one by one.

The Reader - Mismanaged second act and tepid, sanctimonious third act make this an embarassing choice for Best Picture. The acting is fine, but Hare's script is clumsy and Daldry's directing loses its way quite often. Winslet is a supporting actress, not a lead and should really hope that Harvey Weinstein hasn't painted her into a corner on the road to getting her an Oscar win.

Rating: 5/10

Frost/Nixon - A capable director and great cast take on some bad history. Who can forget the colossal importance of the David Frost interviews on the reputation of Richard Nixon? That'd be just about everyone, becuase it wasn't half as important as this film pretends it is. Peter Morgan does a nice job of pumping up the stakes and fitting the interviews into a neat three act structure that is entertaining but rings so false.

Side Note: After Nixon makes his obviously fictional "you and I are actually quite similar" phone call, and Frost decides to... you know, do his job and research for the final interview, do you imagine "Gonna Fly Now" or "Eye of the Tiger" playing in the background? I vote for Joe Ventoso's legendary "The Best Around" from The Karate Kid.

Rating: 6/10

Slumdog Millionaire - I've already been heard on this subject, begins very well and just collapses at the end. Those who love this film seem to forget that stories are about people and people are more complicated than this. Lateeka may as well be a blow up doll at the end for all the depth she is given. But I guess if you like films where women are glorified prizes to be won by the male hero at the end, then this is just... stellar stuff.

Rating: 6/10

Milk - I admire the craft that went into this film, and it does a wonderful job of telling an emotional story without getting preachy. But ultimately, this prize isn't about good, it's about great. It's about unforgettable. Sean Penn plays Harvey Milk brilliantly, but I never really got to know him. Harvey Milk, as he is in this film, never changes or adapts. He grows a beard and later shaves it off, but there is no arc to his story. We see his slow building success, but the reasons for his success are all external. In fact all of the complications are also external For all the love and care that went into this film, it doesn't tell you anything a documentary couldn't about the events of Harvey Milk's life. And that's what this film is, real people imitating history, not revealing the true human behind the legend. This film never really moved me, despite the terribly tragic events that transpire...

Rating: 7/10

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - This is, in my opinion, the best of the bunch. That is a very sad statement for me to make because Eric Roth's narrative is a complete mess. He and Fincher are never in control of what could be an endlessly fascinating complication. Benjamin Button is less a cohesive arc and more of a collection of interesting short stories barely strung together. What elevates this film is the incredible craft behind and in front of the camera. Working together, these artists create some sublime moments... but looking back on them they just don't amount to much

Rating: 8/10

Not much to cheer about. I'm still having an Oscar Party, but it'll be lest festive I think.

Oscar Nominations

2009-01-22T09:01:00.003-05:00

Best Picture
Frost/Nixon
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
The Reader!!!???

Best Director
Ron Howard
David Fincher
Gus Van Sant
Danny Boyle
Stephen Daldry

Best Actor
Frank Langella
Sean Penn
Brad Pitt
Richard Jenkins
Mickey Rourke

Best Actress
Angelina Jolie
Melissa Leo
Meryl Streep
Anne Hathaway
Kate Winslet - FOR THE READER!!??

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin
Heath Ledger
Phillip Seymour Hoffman
Robert Downey jr.
Michael Shannon!!!???

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz
Taraji P. Henson
Amy Adams
Viola Davis
Marisa Tomei

Best Original Screenplay
Wall-E
Frozen River
Happy Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Milk

Best Adapted Screenplay
Slumdog Millionaire
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader

Best Cinematography
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Changeling

Best Art Direction
The Dark Knight
Benjamin Button
The Duchess
Revolutionary Road
Changeling

Best Costume Design
Australia
Milk
The Duchess
Benjamin Button
Revolutionary Road

Editing
Slumdog Millionaire
Milk
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Benjamin Button

Makeup
The Dark Knight
Benjamin Button
Hellboy II

Score
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
Milk
Defiance
Benjamin Button

Song
Wall-E
Slumdog Millionaire Jai ho
Slumdog Millionaire O Saya
(NO SPRINGSTEEN!!!)

Sound Mixing
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
Benjamin Button
Wall-E
Wanted

Visual Effects
The Dark Knight
Benjamin Button
Iron Man

Sound Editing
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Wanted
Wall-E
Slumdog Millionaire

Benjamin Button - 13 nominations
The Dark Knight - 8 nominations (And not Best Picture or Director, Shennanigans!)
Slumdog Millionaire - 8 nominations
Milk - 7 nominations
The Reader - 5 nominations
Frost/Nixon - 5 nominations
Wall-E - 5 nominations (amazing for an animated film and no Best Picture, Shennanigans!)

Anatomy of an Upset: Precedented Comebacks

2009-01-19T14:40:00.005-05:00

As we tick closer and closer to nomination (and inauguration) Tuesday, The big 5 seem locked into place, but there's always something lingering in the back of our heads: It's not going to go down the line is it? Of course it has been in the past. The past two years Into the Wild, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, and Dreamgirls have all been upset, but in 2006 the guild concensus films were all affirmed with nods. Did we have the same inkling that year? I can tell you that we did. The question was: will Munich or Capote be left out and would it be replaced with Walk the Line, King Kong, or Cinderella Man? It was actually a rare prognosticator that picked the actual slate because we all thought: "There has to be an upset!" There didn't and this year there doesn't either.

In order to predict wether there will be an upset, one must have reason. Reasons are obvious in hindsight, but when applied beforehand prove problematic. One must look for a similar film in a similar circumstance in order to determine if a particular film has a chance. In Contention ran a poll of likely contenders for the upset prize and listed: Wall-E, Doubt, The Wrestler, The Reader, and Gran Torino. I added Revolutionary Road to this list as it is the only other film I could see surprising. Then I looked for films that fit this profile. I'll start with the films with the weakest case.

Gran Torino
Dark Horse rating: 2 (out of 10)
Precedent: Letters from Iwo Jima

This is as simple as Clint Eastwood and the Academy's love affair with him. I like Gran Torino and think that its story is moving and will play well with Clint's septegenarain set. However, I'm not sold on this link. Eastwood has had a hard time getting best actor nomination, clearly the films strongest case for Oscar. I think he's good for a nomination, but the film itself is not a true contender. The small scope, tiny cast of unknowns, and overall low production value don't help its chances. There is no film of this type (that I could find) that came from behind and surprised. If so, it would be the ultimate love letter to Clint, but I wouldn't bet on it.

The Reader
Dark Horse Rating: 4 (out of 10)
Precedent: The Accidental Tourist

When The Reader's two beloved and acclaimed producers died, they left quite a mess in terms of campaigning. Subsequently The Reader has not consistently appeared in Awards talk, but does pop up every now and again. Mostly the talk is of the criminally overlooked Ms. Winslet's performance. Besides that, The Reader has a Globe nomination for best picture and a USC scripter nomination. This resume is eerily similar to that of The Accidental Tourist. It has nothing else in common with the William Hurt and Geena Davis film, except the general awards portfolio to this point: Ignored by the Globes, on the awards periphery, strong supporting performance, awards-friendly cast. More a statement that such a head scratcher is possible.

Revolutionary Road
Dark Horse Rating: 5 (out of 10)
Precedent: Elizabeth

Again, the films do not have a whole lot in common. One is literary, the other historical. One has an enormously famous cast while the other was a cast of unknowns (at the time). But they do have in common the idea that a Golden Globe nomination can be enough to gain a nomination. They also have a very strong and visible female performance as a showcase. It also reminds me of Atonement's nomination last year. Revolutionary Road might be a film that appeals to the right demographic to slip in where it didn't elsewhere.

Doubt
Dark Horse Rating: 7 (out of 10)
Precedent: The Dresser

Doubt has much in common with The Dresser in scale. They're both chamber pieces, neither are considered to be exceptionally well-directed, and both rely on the strength of their acting. Obviously they diverge in theme, and also in the prestige of their cast, but a higher profile cast should only give Doubt an advantage that The Dresser did not enjoy. The Dresser also did not enjoy any fanfare before nominations were announced, much like Doubt which has received very little. The similarities are there, the question is: will the voters travel in the same pattern as they did in 83?

The Wrestler
Dark Horse Rating: 8 (out of 10)
Precedent: My Left Foot

While The Wrestler and My Left Foot share little in common thematically, they both have a stellar and memorable performance at their core. Day-Lewis' performance was a breakthrough while Rourke's is a comeback, but they both make their respective films and may elevate them in the eyes of voters.

Consider this as well: Rourke is the odds on favorite to win the award. Over the past 10 oscars, only 2 winners of Best Actor didn't come from a Best Picture nominee (Forrest Whitaker, Denzel Washington). So it happens, but it's rare. Something to consider.

Wall-E
Dark Horse Rating: 10 (out of 10)
Precedent: Several

I've made it no secret that I love this film and would love to see it nominated, but I actually quite like its chances. Here are some of the reasons.

The separate category for animated film is problematic, but the fairly recent nominations of Life Is Beautiful and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon despite a foreign film category for which they were both elligible proves that this is not an insuperable barrier.

The obvious precedent Beauty and the Beast proves that an animated film has been and can be nominated if it is the right film at the right time.

And the Strongest Precedent is:

BABE - A child focused, environmentally conscious film about a scrappy hero who transcends his given station and its barriers in order to make the world (or the farm) a better place. Sound familiar?

Babe had critical support, much as Wall-E has but had little to no show of support from the guilds before the nominations were announced.

And let's get on to the fact that all of the current precursors have ruled Wall-E out of the competition so far. It hasn't been nominated for the Globes Best Comedy because it can only be nominated in the animated section. Because it is an animated film, the acting, direction, (here's where it gets ridiculous) WRITING and PRODUCING cannot be nominated for the main award. Inexplicable as it is, the Oscars will be Wall-E's first true test against the rest of this Best Picture field. We'll find out in a couple of days, but I wouldn't count him out by any stretch of the imagination.

5 non-contenders that deserve Best Supporting Actress more than Freida Pinto

2009-01-17T15:08:00.003-05:00

The BAFTAs have decided that their love for Slumdog Millionaire is more important than any longstanding credibility they once had and nominated Freida Pinto for Best Supporting Actress. This hearkens back to the days of the late 80s/early 90s whenn you had to be in one of 8 films to be nominated for anything (I love Holly Hunter, but The Firm? Joan Cusack for Working Girl?). The past few years have shown a loosening of the field allowing great performances from other movies to compete. Now, with ratings sagging, AMPAS might be tempted to allow Slumdog Millionaire the status of juggernaut. This would be a mistake.

In terms of her performance I would rank it somewhere around Liv Tyler's performance in The Incredible Hulk; okay, not remotely oscar worthy. I would like to offer five alternatives, beyond the obvious. The five current favorites, Rosmarie DeWitt, Debra Winger, Marisa Tomei, Vera Farmiga, Taraji P. Henson... we all know about them. But no one is bandying about these names. Granted some of them are silly, but all of them far outclass the beautiful but two dimensional Ms. Pinto.

#5 Cate Blanchett - Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull

Before you kill me for even mentioning this film, may I ask you to think back on the challenges of the roll she had. Her accent is perfect, her physicality is memorable, and even in the high camp moments she can almost make you believe she can read minds. It's not her fault the CGI looked shitty. It's not her fault the plot was preposterous and not satisfying. This film actually did great business at the box office and would certainly add some viewers to the oscar telecast. What Cate did was actually quite excellent and far more difficult than anything Freida Pinto had to do.

#4 Gwyneth Paltrow - Iron Man

Or how about another very good performance in a very popular movie. Paltrow and Downey jr. had wonderful dialogue and chemistry and that dynamic was one of the most enjoyable things about a very enjoyable film. Sure the "reality" of the film is preposterous, but not that much more preposterous than Slumdog, and Paltrow had some more difficult moments, and different layers to play. I wouldn't nominate Paltrow personally, but she's leagues ahead of Pinto.

#3 Lina Leanderson - Let the Right One In

Now I'm starting to get serious. Leanderson wouldn't add viewers but it'd be a nice thing for fans of this excellent film to actually see it represented in some way (since the foreign film category is the worst joke in history) and it's pretty well deserved. For such a young actress Lina Leanderson really gets across the agony of this poor vampire who has suffered with her affliction for centuries. We see her inherent darkness, her tortured empathy, and her resignation to the horrific necessities she lives with. I'm surprised Leanderson hasn't received more buzz.

#2 Hiam Abass - The Visitor

With all the accolades heaped upon Jenkins, I'm surprised Abass's vital character has been left off the short list. Her grace, dignity, and humor are all on display and her scenes with Jenkins are all played at just the right tone. It'd be a great surprise nod and a well deserved one.

#1 Tanvi Ganesh Lonkar - Slumdog Millionaire

And if the academy is absolutley sold on a Slumdog Juggernaut, how about rewarding the actress that had the lone challenging scene for an actress in the entire film. She's not on the screen for long (neither is Pinto) but the scene involving the younger Latika with Jamal and his brother is very memorable and climactic. Lonkar's incarnation of Latika at least does something other than answer a cell phone.

So there it is 5 viable other options besides the myriad options already available to you. Don't let me down Academy!

Slumdog, Winslet sweep at Globes

2009-01-12T17:38:00.002-05:00

Slumdog Millionaire got a huge boost from last nights golden globes, netting them five total awards (a huge amount for the Globes, espescially with no acting accolades). Despite the Globes recent troubles picking winners (they haven't picked a Best Picture winner since 2003), this can only be considered a good omen for its Best Picture prospects.

And Kate Winslet appears as though she will be annointed on Oscar Sunday in one of the two categories for which she receives a nomination. The voters seemed so superstitious about Kate not winning one, enough of them voted for her in both categories to give her two acting awards last night. It's an unprecedented feat and a sign that Oscar has decided to take the Deborah Kerr label off of Ms. Winslet this year. But in what category? More on that later in the week.

Heath Ledger also won a posthumous award and the response among the oscar voters was phenomenal. It looks like a lock that he will win the first posthumous oscar since Conrad Hall in 2002 and the first posthumous acting oscar since Peter Finch for Network.

Here is a list of the Winners

BPD: Slumdog Millionaire
BPC: Vicky Christina Barcelona
Dir: Danny Boyle
BAC:Colin Farrel - In Bruges
BAD: Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler
BAsC: Sally Hawkins - Happy Go-Lucky
BAsD: Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road
BSA: Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
BSAs:Kate Winslet - The Reader

Oscar Shockers: No one is safe

2009-01-05T23:15:00.010-05:00

The PGA was just announced with the following nominees

Frost Nixon
Benjamin Button
Milk
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire

These films have all the makings of favorites but history tells us that at least one of these films will not make it to Oscar sunday in contention for the big prize. But who?

The past answers many mysteries. Here are five films that may show us which film will be left at the alter this year in order of shock value.

#5 Avalon

Believe it or not, the much maligned Godfather III was nominated for Best Picture and it beat out prior Oscar champ Barry Levinson’s personal and beautifully shot film. A complete snub at the BAFTAs was the only indicator that this film would be left out of the final five.

Who could be this year’s Avalon?

Frost/Nixon – Too traditional, boring, safe etc.

#4 Leaving Las Vegas

This was a bleak film that many felt was the highest artistic achievement of 1995, mostly because of Nicolas Cage’s performance. It became a legitimate contender when both the Golden Globes and Director’s Guild endorsed it. It was also rare that the Best Actor favorite would not have a Best Picture film as a vehicle. This film’s credentials don’t look immensely impressive on their own, but if you look at the tiny resumes of Il Postino and Babe, both of which beat Leaving Las Vegas for a Best Picture Nomination, it is more of a shock. It can only be concluded that the film’s subject matter was too gritty, too unsettling to be awarded.

Who could be this year’s Leaving Las Vegas?

The Dark Knight – Very bleak and cynical about human nature, might not fit with the hopeful theme. Lack of awards “prestige” also hurts.

#3 Thelma & Louise

This film has since become a cultural reference much as Brokeback Mountain was in '06. At the time the big debate was whether Geena Davis or Susan Sarandon more deserved the Best Actress Award. With laud being tossed at director Ridley Scott and screenwriter Callie Khouri as well as the two leads a nomination seemed given. And then it was snubbed in favor of Beauty and the Beast, an unprecedented nomination for an animated film. Perhaps Oscar wanted to avoid more controversy with JFK already on the slate and what better way than by replacing a violent feminist movie with a wildly popular animated film.

What could be this year’s Thelma and Louise?

Milk – avoid political controversy, don't risk alienating middle america, embrace the joyful, happy theme.

#2 Cold Mountain/Dreamgirls

With three time Oscar winning producer Saul Zaentz, the funding and aggression of the Weinsteins and Miramax behind it, this film from previous Oscar champ Anthony Minghella was an early favorite to challenge Return of the King for Best Picture. They sought out three of the hottest actors at the time. The Golden Globes came out in strong support with eight nominations. The BAFTAs gave them 13 nominations. And the Producer’s, Writers, and Screen Actor’s guilds all nominated Cold Mountain. There was a key miss with the Director’s Guild, but the general accord among predictors was that either Master and Commander or Lost In Translation (most likely the latter) would be shut out of the BP race in favor of Cold Mountain. As a past example, they used Being John Malkovich’s failure to win out over more traditional oscar faire. Instead the Best Picture race followed the Director’s guild exactly, leaving out Cold Mountain despite seven nominations in other categories. It proved that Oscar nominations are not determined on paper.

Ditto for Dreamgirls two years ago. Everything seemed perfect and lined up, but something was just a little too perfect, too set in stone. The voters turned on the film and it was shut out

Who could be this year’s Cold Mountain or Dreamgirls?

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Seems like a perfect oscar film with the right cast, skill behind the camera and deep pocketed campaign, but something in the epic romance might leave the voters feeling a bit cold…

#1 Almost Famous

When Cameron Crowe’s bittersweet semi-autobiographical film was released, Crowe was still riding the waves of Jerry Maguire and was met with a host of raves from the critics. Some would call it Crowe’s masterpiece. It sported a top-notch, though not particularly well known, cast, and brilliantly captured the 1970’s road music scene. It was also a coming out party for Kate Hudson whose performance not only created buzz of a nomination, but of a win.

Dreamworks launched a campaign similar to the one that had propelled American Beauty to the Oscar podium at the previous ceremony. Unfortunately their marketing campaign didn’t lead to large ticket sales, but few thought that it would hurt Almost Famous’s chances of garnering a Best Picture nomination. The Globes were very kind to Crowe’s film, granting him four nominations and two wins (one for Hudson, one for Best Picture) then the Globes all unanimously endorsed the film, and the BAFTAs followed suit with six nominations. It seemed certain that Almost Famous would be a contender on Oscar Sunday and maybe a darkhorse winner. And then the nominations were announced and it was obvious that Crowe’s film would be overshadowed by the love fest for Steven Soderbergh. Almost Famous did net four nominations and a win for screenplay, but how a film with this resume was snubbed is almost beyond explanation.

This is a nightmare story for the producers of all five BP favorites. Almost Famous despite its traditional coming of age genre, and impressive Oscar portfolio was shut out of the Best Picture race. It just goes to show that nobody is safe from the big bad snub.

Who could be this year’s Almost Famous?

Slumdog Millionaire – Yes it can happen. A film that is favored to win the whole shebang can be abandoned after a promising campaign. It can run out of steam at the end despite breakthrough performances and overdue directors. Those hailing the film as a modern masterpiece may turn off viewers who haven’t seen it yet by creating unrealistic expectations. I'm not saying it will happen, but it could...

(a version of this article appeared in 2007's Awards Daily, it has been altered to fit this year. Likewise, some films have been changed to fit this year's slate of favorites.)

Updated predix

2009-01-04T11:56:00.002-05:00

So, the holiday is over and I've had some time to step back and look at the trajectory of certain films. I'm now calling Benjamin Button a pretty mortal lock for BP (unless the guilds don't comply) due to impassioned reactions and good holliday B.O. (26 million and will be bolstered by Globe attention). I'm now not as sold on Milk and a little more optimistic about Doubt due to the SAG attention. Here's my new slate:

Best Picture
Slumdog Millionaire
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Wall-E
Frost/Nixon

Best Director
Danny Boyle
David Fincher
Christopher Nolan
Gus Van Sant
Mike Leigh

Best Actor
Mickey Rourke
Sean Penn
Frank Langella
Clint Eastwood
Brad Pitt

Best Actress
Meryl Streep
Kate Winslet
Anne Hathaway
Sally Hawkins
Angelina Jolie

Best Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger
Josh Brolin
Robert Downey jr.
Phillip Seymore Hoffman
Dev Patel

Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis
Penelope Cruz
Taraji P. Henson
Kate Winslet
Amy Adams

Slumdog Millionaire: The Maharaja has no Sherwani

2008-12-20T13:47:00.014-05:00

Allow me to be a massive wet blanket: Slumdog Millionaire is not a great movie. It's not even very good.

This isn't a case of unrealistic expectations, nor is it a case of political bias clouding one's judgement. I simply think it is only an above average film. I don't even think it's a matter of opinion.

It's a nice film about a kid who survives through the slums of Mumbai with the help of his brother and a female friend. He falls in love with the female friend, they are separated and reunite over his appearence on Who Wants To Be a Millionaire. It's a fairy tale with a nice happy ending with some melodramatic/hyperkinetic touches to make it seem somewhat cutting edge. It's an enjoyable film you watch and then forget within minutes; not a modern masterpiece.

Obviously I am out of the mainstream on this, but I am at a total loss to explain the critical acclaim it has received. The appeal is broad and scattershot. It's a inspirational, feel-good, liberal guilting piece of cinematic tourism. It's a teen romantic comedy/children defying the odds/gangster movie. For a good part of the movie it works well, but the ending is all teen movie replete with the surface-level romance, two dimensional characters and ending at a train station/bus station/airport.

SPOILERS AHEAD

Perhaps I see it this way because the romance between Jamal and Latika takes place entirely in their adolescence. What is their relationship like now? Has Latika's life as a prostitute/gangster moll changed her in any way? One would think that it would. What has Jamal done in the meantime? He didn't spend six years as a chai boy, so what did he do then? Through his entire teenage years he stayed true to the woman he loved at thirteen? And if he did, then great! I want to see that! Instead it is breezed over. Jamal and Latika's entire reason to be together is based off of a childhood connection, and yet none of that is evident in the paucity of scenes between Dev Patel and Freida Pinto.

So my question is, why do they even want to be together? The answer seems apparent, but it isn't that easy. No, not even in a fairy tale. As Jay Gatsby and several others have learned, what you had with someone isn't permanent. Six years is a lifetime to be apart, but there seems to be no moment of reawakening, rediscovering the person you once knew. No concerns about the other person, they simply want to be together because that is what is easiest for the screenwriter, the director and espescially for the beautiful but painfully wooden actress Freida Pinto. So perhaps that's where I differ from most. I liked the foundation of Jamal and Latika's friendship, but I had nothing invested in their hollow romance. And so I did not rejoice at movie's end. I don't think I'm the only one either.

Sorry Folks, The Emperor has no clothes... or whatever the Indian equivalent of that would be.

SAG Nominations, reaction later

2008-12-18T10:51:00.002-05:00

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
RICHARD JENKINS / Walter Vale - “THE VISITOR” (Overture Films)
FRANK LANGELLA / Richard Nixon - “FROST/NIXON” (Universal Pictures)
SEAN PENN / Harvey Milk - “MILK” (Focus Features)
BRAD PITT / Benjamin Button - “THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON” (Paramount Pictures)
MICKEY ROURKE / Randy - “THE WRESTLER” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
ANNE HATHAWAY / Kym - “RACHEL GETTING MARRIED” (Sony Pictures Classics)ANGELINA JOLIE / Christine Collins - “CHANGELING” (Universal Pictures)
MELISSA LEO / Ray Eddy - “FROZEN RIVER” (Sony Pictures Classics)
MERYL STREEP / Sister Aloysius Beauvier - “DOUBT” (Miramax Films)
KATE WINSLET / April Wheeler - “REVOLUTIONARY ROAD” (Paramount Vantage)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
JOSH BROLIN / Dan White - “MILK” (Focus Features)
ROBERT DOWNEY, JR. / Kirk Lazarus - “TROPIC THUNDER” (Paramount Pictures)
PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN / Father Brendan Flynn - “DOUBT” (Miramax Films)
HEATH LEDGER / Joker - “THE DARK KNIGHT” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
DEV PATEL / Older Jamal - “SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
AMY ADAMS / Sister James - “DOUBT” (Miramax Flms)
PENÉLOPE CRUZ / Maria Elena - “VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA” (The Weinstein Company)
VIOLA DAVIS / Mrs. Miller - “DOUBT” (Miramax Films)
TARAJI P. HENSON / Queenie - “THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON” (Paramount Pictures)
KATE WINSLET / Hanna Schmitz - “THE READER” (The Weinstein Company)

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
DOUBT (Miramax)
FROST/NIXON (Universal Pictures)
MILK (Focus Features)
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON (Paramount Pictures)

Updated Predix

2008-12-15T22:52:00.002-05:00

Yeah, that's right Wall-E is on my new prediction page. The critics love it too much for me to ignore it. I swear I'm not doing this to piss of Kris Tapley, but I do think he put Bolt as his #2 film just to piss off Wall-E fans. He's one of the best in the biz, but that guy can be a major douchebag.

Best Picture
Slumdog Millionaire
The Dark Knight
Milk
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Wall-E

Best Director
Danny Boyle
Christopher Nolan
Gus Van Sant
David Fincher
Andrew Stanton

Best Actor
Mickey Rourke
Sean Penn
Frank Langella
Clint Eastwood
Leonardo DiCaprio

Best Actress
Meryl Streep
Kate Winslet
Sally Hawkins
Anne Hathaway
Melissa Leo

Best Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger
Josh Brolin
Phillip Seymore Hoffman
Michael Shannon
Dev Patel

Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis
Penelope Cruz
Marissa Tomei
Amy Adams
Kate Winslet (The Reader)

Red Carpet Bias and The Golden Grain of Salt

2008-12-15T22:26:00.003-05:00

In terms of the best picture and acting contests, the Globes have been a decently accurate outfit, although with one pronounced bias: fame. Moreso than any awards (not decided by the general public) The Globes want celebrities on their red carpet wearing Vera Wang. The point is, when they miss, they err on the side of celebrity.

Last year they traded actual nominee Tommy Lee Jones for Denzel Washington (and young hotness James MacAvoy), Hal Holbrook for John Travolta, and Ruby Dee for Julia Roberts. This is not an isolated incident. The year before Ryan Gosling was swapped for a second helping of DiCaprio, and (winner!)Alan Arkin, Djimon Honsou, and Jackie Earle Haley languished while hollywood royalty by the name of Pitt, Nicholson, and Affleck were nominated. It goes back quite a long way.

Also, look at the list of films they've missed in fairly recent years

Letters From Iwo Jima
Crash
Capote
Munich
Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon
The Sixth Sense
The Cider House Rules
The Thin Red Line
Life Is Beautiful

All of them smaller features that have no bankable central star, EXCEPT for The Sixth Sense. I think the Sixth Sense snub speaks well for The Dark Knight's chances because it shows the Globes also like the glamor and allure of Oscar baity features. The Sixth Sense and The Dark Knight are both immensely popular films but without that "oscar" allure. The Academy didn't seem to care about the Sixth Sense and I believe will not care about The Dark Knight's either. Maybe Revolutionary Road and The Reader's boost is a bit inflated.

Either way, Don't go overboard on anything involving Revolutionary Road, The Reader, or really Benjamin Button (although I am now convinced it will be nominated).

Big help to Happy-Go-Lucky and Sally Hawkins by the nearly empty Comedy category.

Since 2005 the Globes have not been extremely accurate and I think we can all see where the Oscars and the Globes diverge.

Golden Globes quick thoughts

2008-12-13T08:56:00.002-05:00

The Globes are going to be way off this year, and there is precedent for it. It wasn't a good day for Milk or Melissa Leo or Clint, but the numbers say the Globes are probably stray pretty far from the Oscars this year.

Longer article later today.

The Oscar Formula: The NBR/BFCA Nexus

2008-12-09T21:46:00.002-05:00

Since the BFCA released a full top 10 in 2005, the comparison of its top 10 to that of the NBR has been a very good tool for predicting the Best Picture slate. 13 of the last 15 Best picture nominees have been in both top 10s. So we have an effective shortlist for this year

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Changeling
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
The Wrestler

I will strike Changeling from this list because of its falling below the "Ligne Chocolat" (Memoirs of a Geisha is precedent) and say that we have a very formidable top 7. In fact, I can't strike any more from the list.

Benjamin Button could hit very big and be very popular

I've already spouted about The Dark Knight, Wall-E, and Slumdog

Frost/Nixon has the reviews, keeps popping up, and is powered by a very popular performance

Ditto for The Wrestler. Either could fill the spot reserved for The Queen/Capote (less obvious film with powerful central perf)

And Milk just seems like the right film at the right time.

So how will we know which film will hit? We have to wait for the guilds, whom announce in early January.

The only film to be on both lists, get nearly unanimous guild support, and not get nominated was last year's Into the Wild. The two films not on both lists had a lock lead actor/actress winner and tremendous guild support.

The Globes, who announce on Thursday, will also be helpful in determining the BP slate.

The Oscar Formula: Wall-E, Best Picture Lock?

2008-12-09T20:26:00.002-05:00

So... that happened. Wall-E won best picture at the LAFCA. Now a critics award was always going to be in Wall-E's future, and they aren't always strong Oscar indicators... but this is the Los Angeles Film Critics Assosciation. It's not only important because of its geography, but because of its "dead-on-balls" accuracy (in the words of Mona Lisa Vito).

Want some stats? How about this- 28 out of the last 34 LAFCA winners have gone on to a BP nomination. In other words Wall-E has a better than 4 to 1 chance of getting a nomination for Best Picture.

Now the film's status as Animated would seem to dampen its chances quite a bit, but it doesn't rule it out in my mind. Take for example the somewhat recent nominations for Life is Beautiful and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (another LAFCA winner) despite the existance of a Foreign Language Film Category. Also, Wall-E could become the recipient of a nomination because of the overall excellent body of work of Pixar.

Whatever the reason Wall-E and Eve (EVAH!) have reason to pop in that Hello Dolly tape and dance around to "Put On Your Sunday Clothes" because their awards chances just got a majory boost.

LA Film Critics Awards

2008-12-09T19:58:00.001-05:00

Picture: “Wall-E”
Runner-up: “The Dark Knight”

Director: Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”
Runner-up: Christopher Nolan, “The Dark Knight”

Actor: Sean Penn, “Milk”
Runner-up: Mickey Rourke, “The Wrestler”

Actress: Sally Hawkins, “Happy-Go-Lucky”
Runner-up: Melissa Leo, “Frozen River”

Supporting actor: Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”
Runner-up: Eddie Marsan, “Happy-Go-Lucky”

Supporting actress: Penelope Cruz, “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” and “Elegy”
Runner-up: Viola Davis, “Doubt”

Screenplay: Mike Leigh, “Happy-Go-Lucky”
Runner-up: Charlie Kaufman, “Synecdoche, New York”

Foreign-language film: “Still Life”
Runner-up: “The Class”

Documentary: “Man on Wire”
Runner-up: “Waltz With Bashir”

Animation: “Waltz With Bashir”

Cinematography: Yu Lik Wai, “Still Life”
Runner-up: Anthony Dod Mantle, “Slumdog Millionaire”

Production design: Mark Friedberg, “Synecdoche, New York”
Runner-up: Nathan Crowley, “The Dark Knight”

Music/score: A.R. Rahman, “Slumdog Millionaire”
Runner-up: Alexandre Desplat, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

New Generation: Steve McQueen, “Hunger”

Douglas E. Edwards independent/experimental film/video: James Benning, “RR” and “Casting a Glance”

Best Song: A Match Made in Heaven?

2008-12-08T23:49:00.012-05:00

Jenny Lewis has been one of my favorite singer/songwriters for quite a few years, almost as many as I've been a full-fledged Oscar addict. So when I found out that she wrote an original song for Disney's adorable movie Bolt, I was rife with anticipation and concern. On the one hand, the song could be crap and I would be forced to lose some respect for her for selling out ever so slightly (Sort of like I was with the majority of "Under the Blacklight"), but no worries - the song "Barking at the Moon" is breezy and catchy without being moronically droning and it lends itself quite well to a kids movie. After songs like "Glendora" and "A Better Son or Daughter" it's a little strange to hear the lovely Ms. Lewis singing from the viewpoint of a dog, but for some reason it works really well.

Not that she'll win. Everyone is basically lining up to be sawed in half by Bruce Springstein or Peter Gabriel, but for a longtime fan it'd be an extra treat to watch an Oscar telecast and see this sexy indie-rock goddess instead of the Enchanted trio of doom. A man can dream...

Sunday Predictions #1

2008-12-07T16:16:00.003-05:00

So here's my first blind grasping prediction of the Oscar race. As you can see, I like Revolutionary Road to swoop in and take over as the fifth contender. I also like it to get several Acting nominations as well. Maybe my faith is misplaced, but it's the sexiest contender left with any mystery.

Best Picture
Slumdog Millionaire
The Dark Knight
Milk
Frost/Nixon
Revolutionary Road

Best Director
Danny Boyle
Christopher Nolan
Gus Van Sant
Sam Mendes
David Fincher

Best Actor
Mickey Rourke
Clint Eastwood
Sean Penn
Leonardo DiCaprio
Frank Langella

Best Actress
Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road)
Melissa Leo
Meryl Streep
Anne Hathaway
Sally Hawkins

Best Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger
Michael Shannon
Josh Brolin (Milk)
Robert Downey jr. (Tropic Thunder)
Brad Pitt (Burn After Reading)

Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis
Debra Winger
Penelope Cruz (Vicky Christina Barcelona)
Kathy Bates
Missy Upham

Best Original Screenplay
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Wall-E
Burn After Reading
Frozen River

Best Adapted Screenplay
Slumdog
Frost/Nixon
The Dark Knight
Revolutionary Road
Doubt

The Oscar Formula: Follow the Money

2008-12-07T01:59:00.005-05:00

The Dark Knight will be nominated for Best Picture.

It's not a particularly bold statement but some doubt has been cast upon its award hopes. There are all the usual hangups assosciated with a comic book movie, espescially a franchise that was nearly ruined by Joel Schumaker. There is a backlash to its immense popularity. The buzz around it has been relatively quiet. But don't fool yourselves, TDK will be there on Oscar Sunday. Money never lies.

A shrewd awards watcher might point out that The Academy has been trending away from big moneymakers to smaller films released by sattelite companies. This is quite true, but that still does not negate the inevitability of Batman's presence at the Oscars.

Here are the facts

- From 1990 all the way to 2003, one of the top five grossing films of the year was nominated for best picture.

- When Brokeback Mountain made under 100 million domestic and was the highest grossing Best Picture nominee, it was the first time that happened in 20 years.

So this less monetary focused Oscars could simply be a trend that could be broken in favor of longstanding traditions. But even if it's not, the highest grossing films of the past four years have averaged $115 million and have been at least the 22nd most successful films of their year. If The Dark Knight is not going to be your top grosser, then who is?

Tell me which of the following films you could see breaking 100 million.

-Benjamin Button

- Milk

- Frost/Nixon

- Slumdog Millionaire

- Gran Torino

- Rachel Getting Married

- Revolutionary Road

- The Reader

- The Wrestler

I see only two REMOTE possibilities. Slumdog could catch on, but I don't see it cracking the century mark. Benjamin Button has the wattage and the fanboy hype, but I don't see the broad BO appeal. And then what are we left with? Are Frank Langella and Michael Sheen going to sell a movie to the general public? Is Milk going to outgain Brokeback? Is Gran Torino going to outgain Million Dollar Baby? The Reader is too distant, Revolutionary Road too depressing, ditto The Wrestler, and Rachel Getting Married has been out for weeks and is languishing.

And don't forget that the Oscar telecast has been not-so-slowly declining in ratings since it went smaller. Oscar is in need of a big film. One the general public has seen in droves and approves of highly. One that has broken longstanding records. One that has sparked a pop culture and counter culture phenomenon. One the critics adore and generally agree was of good quality. One that has that wow factor that will give people a rooting interest in watching the Oscars. One that will get morons like the two Peters on Shootout to shut up about "Small depressing films no-one has seen" being nominated for Best Picture. Who will answer that call?

Bet on it

The Oscar Formula: Ranking the NBR's Top 10 (which goes all the way up to 11)

2008-12-04T21:45:00.006-05:00

Another great thing the NBR gives is their top 10 which sets up a possible Oscar paradigm from which we usually get around 4 nominees for best picture. Over the last 20 years, here's how the NBR's Top Ten has fared at predicting the Oscars

40% Top 10 contains 4 Best Picture Nominees
25% Top 10 contains All Best Picture Nominees
25% Top 10 contains only 2 Best Picture Nominees
10% Top 10 contains 3 Best Picture Nominees

So we can be fairly certain that 2-4 nominees will be taken out of this group. The question remains which ones? We can place the winner Slumdog Millionaire at the top without worry. Only 3 of the past 20 NBR winners have missed and Slumdog seems a strong contender. However that's the only one we can place in the running and not worry about.

Next lets eliminate the pretenders from this list. Changeling has fallen below the "Ligne Chocolat" and therefore can be readily dismissed. The early reviews are lukewarm on Defiance (even the positive ones) and the NBR has shown a pro-Ed Zwick bias in the past that hasn't panned out with Oscar(Blood Diamond, The Last Samurai, Glory) so I'm ready to put that one to bed. While I am absolutely in love with Wall-E, one must distance one's self and realize that no Animated movie will be nominated without a groundswell the breaks the richter scale. So, it's out too. While I enjoyed Burn After Reading, it wasn't strong enough to break through that Academy backlash that goes with "having your year" as the Coens did last year.

So we have our #1 and our bottom 4, which leaves us with 6 left (what? I thought it was a top 10? Those sneaky NBR guys!) Of those 6, The Wrestler seems to have the least chance. That's just a judgement call and not based on anything statistical, so take it as you will.

7 of the last 10 films that had a a best actor win and a top ten appearance (and whose actor wasn't winning for dual performances, including dual perfs it's 9 out of 16) have gone on to a best picture nomination. That makes things look pretty rosy for Gran Torino, although I'm still not a full believer.

6 of the last 10 films with a best supporting actor win and top 10 appearence have gone on to a best picture nomination, which helps Milk.

Benjamin Button's numbers are too contradictory to say anything. The long term stats for best director winners are very good (9 of 15) but the recent trend is very bad (2 of 6), so where does that leave monseur Button? Somewhere in the middle.

I have a good amount of confidence in The Dark Knight for several reasons, several of which will be covered in a later column.

Frost/Nixon is still a mystery.

So here is the top 10 (or, you know, 11) as I see it

1. Slumdog Millionaire
2. Milk
3. The Dark Knight
4. Gran Torino
5. Frost/Nixon
6. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
7. The Wrestler
8. Wall-E
9. Defiance
10. Burn After Reading
11. Changeling

Key- Bold and Underlined- Lock
Underlined- likely
italics - unlikely

So, if four of the 11 are going to make it, where is the other nominee going to come from? More on that tomorrow!

The Oscar Formula: 6 things we know after the NBR Awards

2008-12-04T15:22:00.014-05:00

The NBR is one of my favorite awards, if for no other reason than they are the first significant precursor. The awards picture just got much clearer, and here's what the numbers tell us.

1) Slumdog Millionaire will be nominated for Best Picture.
I feel confident in saying that without equivocation. An NBR win does not guarantee a nomination... but Slumdog was already a prohibitive nomination frontrunner and the statistics support that. The winner of the NBR has received a Nomination for best picture 19 out of the last 21 times. The odds of a win are up in the air. As of last year NBR hadn't predicted a winner since 1999, but it could be trending toward picking the winner. I'm not ready to call it either way.

2)Clint Eastwood will be nominated for Best Actor, and might win
The best actor stats for the NBR are even more impressive if anything. They had a bad run from 2001-2 with failed endorsements of Billy Bob Thornton and Campbell Scott, but every other winner has gone on to a nomination going all the way back to 1986. Of those 20, 9 went on to win best actor. We all know the academy loves them some Clint, and it looks like he's an even money bet to take home the trophy.

3) Anne Hathaway will be nominated for Best Actress, and will lose
NBR winners of the Best Actress awards are sure bets for a nomination. One has to go back to 1990 to arrive at an NBR winner that missed a nomination. However, only 4 of the last 15 have won. And if you want a trend, only one of the last five have won, and that was Helen Mirren in full juggernaut mode.

4) Josh Brolin will be nominated for Best Supporting Actor, and will lose
Starting from 1979, every film year ending in 9, the NBR Best Supporting Actor does not get an oscar nod. Every other year they do. That's 3 out of the last 29 (Alan Alda, P.S. Hoffman and Paul Dooley being the snubees) of those 27 only 5 have won and none have won in the past 5 years. Add to this the smell test of Brolin beating out Ledger and I'd say it will be a pleasure for Mr. Brolin just to be nominated. I also feel bad for the poor sap who wins next year's NBR Best Supporting Actor.

5) Penelope Cruz will not win Best Supporting Actress, might not be nominated

Easy statistics here. The NBR has whiffed on the past 11 winners of the Best Supporting Actress category. The NBR is trending better in this category as 4 of the past 6 winners have been nominated for an oscar. While 4 out of 6 looks good for Penelope, one must also consider that if you extend the years it becomes only 4 of the last 11.

6) Fincher and Benjamin Button will probably NOT get nominations.

Fincher's win brings about the most interesting statistic: it may hurt his chances and the chances of his film. Only 3 of the last 10 NBR Best Director winners have been nominated for Best Director. And only 4 of them have had their film nominated for best Picture (in 98, Elizabeth was nommed, Shekar Kapur was not) I will not call them out of contention for several reasons, not the least of which is the absurdity of downgrading a film due to its success. But if it gets no other help like Burton did last year, or Mann did in 2004 etc. then I would tell Fincher and his fanboy legions to worry quite a great deal.

NBR Awards Announced

2008-12-04T15:14:00.002-05:00

• Best Film: Slumdog Millionaire
• Best Director: David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• Best Actor: Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
• Best Actress: Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
• Best Supporting Actor: Josh Brolin, Milk
• Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
• Best Foreign Foreign Language Film: Mongol
• Best Documentary: Man on Wire
• Best Animated Feature: WALL-E
• Best Ensemble Cast: Doubt
• Breakthrough Performance by an Actor: Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
• Breakthrough Performance by an Actress: Viola Davis, Doubt
• Best Directorial Debut: Courtney Hunt, Frozen River
• Best Original Screenplay: Nick Schenk, Gran Torino
• Best Adapted Screenplay: Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire and Eric Roth, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• Spotlight Award: Melissa Leo, Frozen River and Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
• The BVLGARI Award for NBR Freedom of Expression: Trumbo

• Top Ten Films: (In alphabetical order)

BURN AFTER READING
CHANGELING
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
THE DARK KNIGHT
DEFIANCE
FROST/NIXON
GRAN TORINO
MILK
WALL-E
THE WRESTLER

• Top Five Foreign Language Films:
EDGE OF HEAVEN
LET THE RIGHT ONE IN
ROMAN DE GUERRE
A SECRET
WALTZ WITH BASHIR

• Top Five Documentary Films (In alphabetical order)
AMERICAN TEEN
THE BETRAYAL (NERAKHOON)
DEAR ZACHARY
ENCOUNTERS AT THE END OF THE WORLD
ROMAN POLANSKI: WANTED AND DESIRED

• William K. Everson Film History Award: Molly Haskell and Andrew Sarris

Ebert Pwns Stein

2008-12-04T14:40:00.002-05:00

Roger Ebert was incapacitated when Ben Stein's Odious documentary "Expelled" was released, but he has marshalled one doosy of a review that also addresses the merits of evolution because a responsible review of such a film should. Ebert picks apart this film down to the rotting carcass of it's false premise and it is one hell of a read. I'd provide a quote, but it would feel awful to extricate any of Ebert's gorgeos prose. Best just to read the whole thing.

The comment section is even more entertaining.

Contender Profile: The Visitor

2008-12-02T13:29:00.003-05:00

The Visitor
Broad Appeal: 93%
Perceived Quality: 79
Mini-Review: A interesting mix of a middle-aged awakening story with a harrowing immigration nightmare. Jenkins is quite good, but the film's true strength is in the story it tells. Ultimately it's too naturalistic to be transcendant and too convenient to be truly naturalistic, but is easy to discuss and difficult to forget.

Awards Chances: It's only really competing in two categories, best actor and best original screenplay. It has a better than average shot at either, but will need some critics awards to pitch in for the cause. Probably won't win either.

Contender Profile: Let The Right One In

2008-12-01T17:56:00.006-05:00

Let the Right One In
Directed by Tomas Alfredson

Broad Appeal: 98%
Perceived Quality: 82

Mini-Review: Neither Perfect, nor groundbreaking, and yet is an undoubtably original take on the vampire genre and helmed with remarkable skill. At its best when it sticks to the relationship between the two tweens; fantastic freudian implications abound. Though it is a bit slow, and in Sweedish, it's strangely approachable.

Awards Chances: Unfortunately Nil, unless some critics awards come through. Maybe a technical nod slips in, or maybe it snags a best adapted screenplay nomination. Alas, it is not elligiable for best foreign language film (don't get me started on the academy's braindead rules in this category) becuase that would be its best chance.

Analysis: Recovering (from) the Satellites

2008-11-30T22:07:00.005-05:00

So the Satellite Awards are not particularly relevant to... well almost anything. That isn't to say that they're completely off. No, that would be too easy. One cannot bet with or against the Satellites, merely wait and see how close or how far off they are.

For example: Their love for Frozen River may be an example of them falling in love with a small picture that will have minimal or no impact like they did for "The Lookout" last year. It could also be a sign of things to come.

However, you can generally count on them to predict 2-4 nominees for best picture and 2-4 nominees in each category. They rarely, if ever, encapsulate all the Oscar nominees for acting even in the races where they supply more than 10 nominees. The lone exception is the Best Actress category, which is usually easy to reduce to an accurate shortlist of 10.

Add to this the snafu located in the Adapted Screenplay category that Guy Lodge at In Contention pointed out and it's hard to give too much creedence, but they can't be totally ingored.

So they told us what we knew already: Slumdog, Milk, and Frost/Nixon are major players in the Best Picture race. The big question is, will their love for "The Reader" catch on with the more influential awards? Only time will tell.

The Oscar Formula: Mathematically Eliminated

2008-11-30T16:00:00.004-05:00

The following films will not be nominated for Best Picture. Their broad appeal numbers have fallen below the "Ligne Chocolat" and none of them have enough of an X-factor. It's not a shocking list, but it's good to say it definitively.

The Duchess
Changeling
Secret Life of Bees
W
Australia
Body of Lies

Entertainment News: Satelite Awards Announced

2008-11-30T15:50:00.004-05:00

Overall, I'd say The Reader is the big winner in this set of awards, with Frost/Nixon, Milk, and Slumdog Millionaire holding up as strong contenders. Frozen River and Ballast keep popping up, and might be the true indie darlings of this year. More analysis later.

Motion Picture, Drama
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Revolutionary Road
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Frozen River

Director
Thomas McCarthy - The Visitor
Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant - Milk
Christopher Nolan - The Dark Knight
Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry - The Reader

Actress In A Motion Picture, Drama
Melissa Leo - Frozen River
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Kristin Scott Thomas - I’ve Loved You So Long
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kate Winslet - The Reader

Actor In A Motion Picture, Drama
Mickey Rourke -The Wrestler
Mark Ruffalo - What Doesn’t Kill You
Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
Frank Langella -Frost/Nixon
Leonardo Dicaprio - Revolutionary Road
Sean Penn - Milk

Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical
Happy-Go-Lucky
Nick and Norah’s Infinite Playlist
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Tropic Thunder
In Bruges
Choke

Actress In A Motion Picture, Comedy Or Musical
Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky
Meryl Streep - Mamma Mia!
Lisa Kudrow - Kabluey
Kat Dennings - Nick and Norah’s Infinite Playlist
Catherine Deneuve - A Christmas Tale
Debra Messing - Nothing Like the Holidays

Actor In A Motion Picture, Comedy Or Musical
Ricky Gervais - Ghost Town
Sam Rockwell - Choke
Josh Brolin - W.
Michael Cera - Nick and Norah’s Infinite Playlist
Brendan Gleeson - In Bruges
Michael Cera - Nick and Norah’s Infinite Playlist
Mark Ruffalo - The Brothers Bloom

Actress In A Supporting Role
Rosemarie DeWitt - Rachel Getting Married
Penelope Cruz - Elegy
Anjelica Huston - Choke
Sophie Okonedo - The Secret Life of Bees
Emma Thompson - Brideshead Revisited
Viola Davis - Doubt
Beyoncé Knowles - Cadillac Records

Actor In A Supporting Role
Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road
Robert Downey, Jr. - Tropic Thunder
Rade Sherbedgia - Fugitive Pieces
James Franco - Milk
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Philip Seymour - Hoffman Doubt

Motion Picture, Foreign Language Film
Let the Right One In - Sweden
The Class - France
Sangre de mi Sangre - Argentina
Reprise - Norway
Gomorrah - Italy
Caramel - Lebanon / France

Motion Picture, Animated Or Mixed Media
The Tale of Despereaux
Dr. Seuss’ Horton Hears a Who!
WALL-E
Bolt
Waltz With Bashir
The Sky Crawlers

Motion Picture, Documentary
Man on Wire
Pray the Devil Back to Hell
Encounters at the End of the World
Religulous
Anita O’Day - The Life of a Jazz Singer
Waltz With Bashir

Screenplay, Original
Philip Roth - Elegy
Thomas McCarthy -The Visitor
Eric Roth, Robin Swicord - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Courtney Hunt - Frozen River
Baz Luhrmann, Stuart Beattie, Ronald Harwood, Richard Flanagan - Australia
Dustin Lance Black - Milk

Screenplay, Adapted
John Patrick Shanley - Doubt
Peter Morgan - Frost/Nixon
David Hare - The Reader
Simon Beaufoy - Slumdog Millionaire
Justin Haythe - Revolutionary Road

Original Score
David Arnold - Quantum of Solace
Thomas Newman - WALL-E
John Powell - Dr. Seuss’ Horton Hears a Who!
A.R. Rahman - Slumdog Millionaire
David Hirschfelder - Australia
Danny Elfman - Milk

Original Song
”Another Way to Die”/Jack White - Quantum of Solace
“If the World”/Guns N’ Roses - Body of Lies
“Down to Earth”/Peter Gabriel - WALL-E
“By the Boab Tree”/Angela Little et al. - Australia
“Jaiho”/ A.R. Rahman and Gulzar - Slumdog Millionaire
“The Wrestler”/Bruce Springsteen - The Wrestler

Cinematography
Jess Hall - Brideshead Revisited
Gyula Pados - The Duchess
Mandy Walker - Australia
Tim Orr - Snow Angels
Tom Stern - Changeling
Claudio Miranda - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Visual Effects
Quantum of Solace
Iron Man
The Dark Knight
The Day the Earth Stood Still
Australia

Film Editing
Quantum of Solace
Iron Man
The Dark Knight
Australia
Slumdog Millionaire
Frost/Nixon

Sound (Mixing & Editing)
Quantum of Solace
Iron Man
The Dark Knight
Australia
WALL-E
The Day the Earth Stood Still

Art Direction & Production Design
Australia
Brideshead Revisited
The Duchess Paramount Vantage
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
City of Ember
Revolutionary Road

Costume Design
The Duchess
Brideshead Revisited
Australia
Sex And The City
City of Ember
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Auteur Award
Baz Luhrmann

TOP 10 FILMS OF 2008 - [ listed alphabetically ]
BALLAST
CHANGELING
DOUBT
THE DARK KNIGHT
FROST / NIXON
FROZEN RIVER
MILK
THE READER
REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

The Oscar Formula: Broad Appeal

2008-11-30T01:00:00.004-05:00

The function of this metric seems intuitive: If the movie appeals to a wide variety of people then it has a better chance of appealing to academy voters and therefore has better chances for a Best Picture Oscar. Rottentomatoes is the very best resource for such information and has been for a decade.

However, the statistic is not as simple as High=good, low=bad. If such things were true, then documentaries and animated films would dominate the awards festivities. Certainly if a film falls below a certain level of broad appeal, you can count them out. But is there a ceiling to the broad appeal metric to go with the floor? There is some statistical data that says: yes.

Contention Threshold

There is a clearly demarcated line at which a film no longer becomes a contender. I like to call it the "ligne chocolat" because it is set by Lasse Halstrom's charming film Chocolat which garnered a puny 62%. Anything below this would require some super mojo to overcome. This line eliminates a large number of films. Chocolat's mojo was called Harvey Weistein in his heyday.

Also, there is a low water mark for Oscar Winners as well that I'd like to call the "Crash Barrier" because it was set by Paul Haggis' controversial film "Crash" which claimed only 75% broad appeal, the lowest for an oscar winner in the past decade. Love it or hate it, one must recognize Crash as an event film with unprecedented appeal. It's still the #1 most rented film on Netflix. So any film that falls below the "Crash Barrier" better have something extra special working.

Too good to win?

It seems strange to contemplate, but only 7 of the last 50 nominated films were rated above 95% on Rottentomatoes: only 14%. Of those 7, none of them won. It seems if a film reaches that upper 5 percentile its chances decrease greatly. Why is this? Perhaps a great number of those films are animated and documentary films and therefore are transported to their own separate categories.

But what of the live action fiction films that do get nominated but cannot win? My educated guess is that the film's broad appeal can have a downfall. If it appeals to almost everyone, then perhaps it does not risk enough to be truly loved as opposed to simply admired.

Oscar Profile

The average oscar nominee has an RT score in the mid-80s whereas the average winner's score is in the late 80s to early 90s. In terms of broad appeal the nominee range is a very broad 62-96 and the winners range is 75-94. Tomorrow I'll take a look at what films we can eliminate from competition based solely on this metric.

Magic Number?

One curious thing I noticed while pouring over this data is that the mode, or most frequently occurring number, of both the nominees and the winners was the same, and it was a very high number: 94. It may be a useless statistic, but, just for fun, let's say it isn't. Guess what film is currently sitting pretty at the very popular percentage of 94: Box office champ and critical darling "The Dark Knight."

Raw Data

mean
winners: 87
nominees: 86

median
winners:90
nominees: 87

mode
both: 94

Contender Profile: The Dark Knight

2008-11-29T21:46:00.003-05:00

The Dark Knight
Directed by Christopher Nolan

Broad Appeal: 94
Perceived Quality: 82

Mini-Review: Yeah, it's the best comic book film ever, but it's more. It's the movie event of the year, and one of the best reviewed and with the most buzzed performance. Less pulpy and more substantive than Batman Begins, this is a rather sober meditation on authority, society, and terrorism wrapped into a satisfying action formula. It's not the best film of the year, but you have to admire its ability to probe and entertain at the same time.

Awards Chances: It's more than a dark horse for Best Picture, this film is simply too big to ignore. Add to this the record box office returns, the emotional support for Ledger, and the fact that several contenders have deferred to next year or foundered with critics and a best picture nomination seems more likely than unlikely. Ledger appears to be a lock for Supporting Actor, and look for a slew of technical nominations even if TDK misses the best picture nomination.

Contender Profile: Wall-E

2008-11-29T09:51:00.008-05:00

Wall-E
Directed by Andrew Stanton

Broad Appeal: 96
Perceived Quality: 93

Mini Review: This will probably be my favorite movie of the year. Dazzling visually, it is also hilarious, deeply touching, and able to deliver a message without making it sound like a “message.” A film about what it means to be human.

Awards Chances: While I’m over the moon about it and the critical reaction is extraordinarily positive, we have seen this dance almost every year: Pixar releases a film that is one of the best of the year and it has to settle for a best Animated Feature award. Finding Nemo, The Incredibles, and Ratatouille have all had strong Best Picture support, so why should Wall-E be any different? Perhaps a growing sense that the studio deserves an award will do the trick. If so, this is the year.

Verdict: Dark horse for Best Picture, sure to get nods for sound, score, song and a lock to win best Animated feature.

Contender Profiles

2008-11-27T21:06:00.006-05:00

Here's a quick guide to the Profiles I'll be doing for all the major awards contenders after they are released.

I begin with the movie's score on Rottentomatoes. For those not familiar, Rottentomatoes is a site that takes a wide range of reviews, cuts them up into favorable (fresh) and unfavorable (rotten) and then tells you the percentage of folks that liked the film. I'll call this metric "Broad Appeal" since it doesn't differentiate between a lukewarm endorsement and a rave and because it's sampling size is enormous.

I'll also include the Metacritic score, which is a sampling of 30-40 prestigious critics and assigning a qualitative score out of 100. The sampling pool is small, but the reviewers have clout and the scores are more exact. I'll call this metric "Perceived Quality"

Then I'll include a short review of the film, if I have seen it (I will try to see them all) and then an assesment of their awards potential.

I will also be developing different metrics and I will update the profiles as I go along. If you ever want to see all of the contender profiles, just to get a sense of the race, click on the Contender Profile link below to get a list of them.

Wall-E will be the first film I profile.... tomorrow. Now it's time to sleep off the tryptophan.

The Oscar Formula: A Noble Quest

2008-11-26T11:41:00.000-05:00

Tilting at windmills: thus is the job of every Awards blogger. We post predictions, we create metrics, we handicap, we suppose, we put our faith in films based on the concept, pedigree, production still, trailer, or a simple gut instinct.

And we have ALL been horribly wrong.

One of my proudest moments as an aspiring blogger was to create a metric that predicted the Producer's Guild Awards. I submitted it to a prestigious awards blog and had it published. It was then linked to and discussed at length on several other blogs. Most praised it as a logical analysis and because it created some interesting results. I used my formula to eliminate Babel and The Queen from the PGA slate. It stood to reason, the financials were not good on either of those films and far stronger on Letters from Iwo Jima and my Upset Special: The Devil Wears Prada. While my formula correctly predicted The Departed, Dreamgirls, and Little Miss Sunshine for the PGA, Babel and The Queen, despite their wretched performance in my metric, were nominated for the PGA. I spent over 12 hours analyzing data and creating this formula, and ultimately it was functionally useless.

I'm not alone. Some of the best minds in the biz wrote off The Departed as "too kick-ass" to win best pic; still others claimed that No Country for Old Men wasn't popular with Academy voters.

However, sometimes we hit upon something: a new trend, a paradigm shift among the voters, a pattern of precursors and when we do, it feels sooo good.

And so again, I shall lift my lance aloft, with Sr. Panza by my side, and try to pierce that ogre with the ever waving limbs.

Welcome!

2008-11-26T09:48:00.001-05:00

Greetings new readers and transplants from The Daily Iconoclast. This is Iconoclast Entertainment. I'll be posting several CONTENDER PROFILES, and use metrics to analyze THE OSCAR FORMULA. You can count on quite a few RANTs, and some critical analysis FOR POSTERITY. I'll also try to post ENTERTAINMENT NEWS whenever it breaks. Enjoy.